Current Developments in Afghanistan: What Next?

Before the end deadline of US troops pull out from Afghanistan on 31st August 2021 given by US President Joe Biden, On Sunday 15 August 2021, the Taliban has recently captured Afghanistan's capital Kabul and the presidential palace.

After capturing key cities, provisional capitals, and then the Taliban on Sunday moved towards Kabul. Before they enter Kabul, Taliban leadership announced they will not capture Kabul by force while creating violence but through peaceful negotiations. Before their arrival, Afghanistan's President had left the Presidential palace and fled to Uzbekistan as per media reports. As US President said, "Afghanistan political leaders gave up and fled the country."

Taliban have entered Kabul and the presidential palace without any bloodshed and violence. The similar day they get control on Afghanistan's administration.

Now, after two days as Afghanistan is totally under the control of the Taliban, then the Question arises What is next?

There are many speculations in media about the future of Afghanistan but one thing is clear "The Taliban are the legitimate ruler of Afghanistan", because Intra Afghan peace process negotiations unofficially end with no successful results. The US President Joe Biden recently in his speech, defend his decision to withdraw US troops from Afghanistan and criticize the Afghanistan government and Army for their failure to defend themselves against the Taliban and give up within days. US President said,

"American troops cannot and should not be fighting in a war and dying in a war that Afghan forces are not willing to fight for themselves."

"I will not mislead the American people by claiming that just a little more time in Afghanistan will make all the difference."He added.

This is a clear message from President Joe Biden, who will not now engage in Afghanistan as other fronts of threat are challenging the US. He concluded his threat as a " Strategic Competition with China and Russia".

So, the following are the main possibilities that can be seen in the Future.

There will likely be no transitional take over of government by the Taliban, as they are delaying for final conclusion to reach an inclusive form of government.

They will fully take up the charge of the government and give a share to other ethnic groups. The US now will engage itself, especially with China and Russia instead Taliban (as it is visible from the US pullout from Afghanistan).

Like China, Pakistan, Russia, Iran, Qatar, and other major regional and international key countries are closely watching the emerging situation in Afghanistan and following the evacuation process of foreign and Afghan personals from Afghanistan, they have to decide about their decision about recognition of the Taliban regime.

At the end of this analysis, it seems possible that if the Taliban successfully reached a political settlement with an inclusive government accepted by all parties without any bloodshed and violence then China or Russia will be the first to recognize the government in Afghanistan and then following the international community Pakistan will decide its decision about recognition of the Taliban regime.

It is also possible that Quad countries especially the US and India will be on the other side but now it's fact "Taliban are a reality and working with them is necessary for durable peace in Afghanistan and the whole region that will create regional connectivity in region for development and prosperity of Afghan people who are facing 40 years of war and bloodshed in Afghanistan".

Let's give a chance to peace in Afghanistan under a government accepted and welcomed by the Afghan people and beyond.